Thursday, 10 November 2016

How did Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?

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He middle fingered the establishment and acted as though they didn’t matter.
A friend posted in Facebook something along the lines of “if only the blacks voted for Hillary as much they did Obama…”. Essentially he is saying the blacks care more about the race and shifted the blame. Ironically, he was supporting “race equality”. Then a guy blaming Jill for taking Green votes. As though it is a crime to support green. Leave alone the fact that the green party took away no Hillary votes in the key states.
I’m surprised that even after the results staring so much in the face, some are in denial - blaming the third parties, blaming the “fence sitters”, blaming the people who didn’t turn up, blaming the blacks for turning out enough, blaming the white females and so on. My Facebook friends have blamed each one of these groups in the past few hours.
In fact, there is no proof that the third party candidates took votes from Clinton. It is more likely for them to have taken from Trump, where even many traditional republicans openly stood against. Even George Bush didn’t vote for his party candidate [Trump thinks 'it's sad' George W Bush voted 'None of the Above']. That means Trump was able to find a voice far bigger than even the Republican party.
The white women vote was nearly split even. That after all the revelations about Trump’s uncharitable comments. Surely, not all those of the women were misogynists. Something must have troubled them far more to go to the polls & vote for Trump, keeping down their disgust.
Same with the Hispanics who voted more with the Republicans than in the recent times. That after his statements about the wall. Surely, something bigger must have been there to keep down their inhibitions on racism.

This is part of the common people’s revolution against the establishment. They don’t trust their politicians. Their media. Their diplomats. Their administrators. They felt let down by their economists. They fear about their jobs and culture. They fear something existential issue about their way of life. And when people have existential fears, they suppress all other inhibitions.
The more the media talked about Trump’s failures, the more it looked like the establishment colluding. It was as though everyone was conspiring against Trump. To defeat that establishment was more important for many than their own inhibitions on gender and race issues. And it completely didn’t matter that Trump was unrefined, uninformed and politically wrong. In fact, those are the precise things that made him anti-establishment.
His blathering about nuclear triad and other topics, rather than harming him actually helped him. People saw him as an ordinary Joe and the Joes don’t go well prepared in public talking. People saw that as honest and down to earth in the same way as they saw GW Bush. In contrast HRC was super well rehearsed - almost to the level of a robot. People didn’t care about what she said, but just noted the way she said it. That reminded them of the establishment - a scheming individual.
And more the media talked about HRC’s virtues and Trump’s uncouthness, more the people saw a need to back Trump. It was their fight against the elite. And my liberal friends had no idea that they were in an echo chamber. They completely tuned out anything they find deplorable.

This revolution is hardly limited to the US. It is happening across the world. In Arab Spring, many of the established governments were toppled in the Middle East. In Brexit, the British voters middle fingered all the mainstream parties. In Philippines, the new President is completely fingering US and going straight with his executions of drug addicts. In India and Indonesia, the voters elevated promising provincial chiefs to premiers in 2014, both of whom coming from poor backgrounds.
And it is just the beginning. Across Europe and elsewhere in the world changes are happening to the post-WW2 coalitions and political arrangements.
Everywhere, there is an anger against the establishment. Anger against the status quo. Like in the late 18th century, this is the worst time to be a part of the elite.
People around the world have gotten existential worries about their culture, economic status and the ability to continue their way of life. For them it looks like the liberals are pushing the reforms way too fast and without paying heed to their opinions.
As the liberals tar them as being outdated, racists and uneducated [and as Hillary mentioned deplorables], the angry commoners often mask their anger and don’t reveal enough of their preferences in public [not a single person on my FB feed supported Trump even though I know many secretly support him]. This is why the opinion polls don’t reveal the complete picture. Also, many liberals measure public opinion through media and completely miss the fire building up underneath.
As the liberals brush aside these concerns and don’t try to address them, these voters stop trusting anything to do with the former. Historically, people have fought the hardest when their way of life is threatened. Liberals for all their alleged grasp of history, failed to go beyond endlessly quoting the 1932 elections in the Weimar republic, and failed to see the history of revolutions and civil wars.
As the words Fascism and Nazism got thrown too easily, the shock value completely evaporated. If every right wing leader was Hitler, then there was nothing special or shocking about getting branded as Hitler. If the previous Hitlers around the world didn’t end the world, why would this new Hitler?

Ultimately, it is an anger that existed for a long time and in hindsight it is not hard to see a Trump victory. He won way many states that were thought to be solidly democrat. He won far more Hispanic votes than Mitt Romney. And he won a sizable chunk of the immigrants and more surprisingly a sizable chunk of the females. So much for all the buzzfeed worthy charts posted by Nate Silver. Trump won despite his embarrassing revelations about women and despite the Republican leadership quitting on him. That should show the level of anger underneath. This anger is not all from racists, white supremacists and misogynists, KKK supporters, etc.
Revolutions often turn up leaders who are far worse than the establishment they toppled. But, they also help heal things over the long run.
In a way this is good for the US. Like a pressure cooker releasing pressure, this is an election to let out that built-up pressure & anger in a less violent way. Hopefully this is an election that will let both sides see the other’s point. The “us vs them” attitude and the uncharitable attitudes of the other side has to end.

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